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  1. Xaphoon148's Avatar
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       #1  
    Is Nokia up to be the next "big thing" ?
    Here it seem to be
    Apple iPhone 5 Specs Versus the Competition's: Which Will You Buy? | Gadget Lab | Wired.com
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  2. addman's Avatar
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    #2  
    Quote Originally Posted by Xaphoon148 View Post
    You shouldn't go so much on what tech sites says. Most people who are frequenting those sites/blogs aren't the same people that buys an iPhone. Tech interested people vote on such polls and those people are usually Android or WP users, everybody else uses iPhones. That poll doesn't mean anything to me, iPhone will sell in droves for the foreseeable future but come 2 generations of WP8 handsets and we might see some bigger shifts in marketshare. These things don't happen overnight. I think though, this line of Lumias will definitely do better than the last, I'm certain of it. Since Nokia and MS don't have the marketing genius and such a large core of hardcore users as Apple they'll have to rely on word of mouth and it will take some time.

    Also, in these discussions I'd like to point out that hardware spec will never sway an Apple user nor will it sway a non-Apple user to get a WP. Only us tech interested care about numbers and figures, "normal" people want to know what they can actually do with their phone and that's where Nokia and MS have a real edge, you've got the fantastic Nokia apps, a camera that -IMO- will revolutionize the way people think of and use a mobile camera, a mobile camera that isn't just about useless megapixels but you can actually take non-blurry pics with it in low light conditions. It cannot be mentioned enough or overestimated how important the camera of the 920 will be for sales. WP8 will be just as important, something fresh, something personal, easy and seamless to use and features that haven't been disclosed yet.
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  3. Xaphoon148's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by addman View Post
    You shouldn't go so much on what tech sites says. Most people who are frequenting those sites/blogs aren't the same people that buys an iPhone. Tech interested people vote on such polls and those people are usually Android or WP users, everybody else uses iPhones. That poll doesn't mean anything to me, iPhone will sell in droves for the foreseeable future but come 2 generations of WP8 handsets and we might see some bigger shifts in marketshare. These things don't happen overnight. I think though, this line of Lumias will definitely do better than the last, I'm certain of it. Since Nokia and MS don't have the marketing genius and such a large core of hardcore users as Apple they'll have to rely on word of mouth and it will take some time.

    Also, in these discussions I'd like to point out that hardware spec will never sway an Apple user nor will it sway a non-Apple user to get a WP. Only us tech interested care about numbers and figures, "normal" people want to know what they can actually do with their phone and that's where Nokia and MS have a real edge, you've got the fantastic Nokia apps, a camera that -IMO- will revolutionize the way people think of and use a mobile camera, a mobile camera that isn't just about useless megapixels but you can actually take non-blurry pics with it in low light conditions. It cannot be mentioned enough or overestimated how important the camera of the 920 will be for sales. WP8 will be just as important, something fresh, something personal, easy and seamless to use and features that haven't been disclosed yet.
    You may be right about much of that, but have heard non-tech people talking about
    "I want that yellow phone that was in the newspaper"...
    And so do I :)
    A shiny yellow one ;)
    "Musicians don't retire; they stop when there's no more music in them."
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  4. XENOPHOS's Avatar
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    #4  
    Yes it will be...

    seeing the reviews people are giving it and seeing even a lay-man's reaction to it, it is good to assume yes...
  5. aubreyq's Avatar
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    #5  
    I agree with addman. The success of the Lumia 920 will rely on word of mouth and advertising that focuses (no pun intended) heavily on the 920's camera. The ads shouldn't mention the OS too much. Microsoft already tried that. The idea is to sell the phone. People will figure out the OS part later.
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  6. Mio_Ray's Avatar
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    #6  
    Also the Lumia is being heavily compared to the iPhone these days. Anyone reading up on the iP5 will get the story of the Lumia as well :)

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  7. #7  
    As long as it gets into the mainstream discussion. It's a great sensational story after all, L920 with all the hardware innovations that Apple lacked.

    However, the real deal is when Windows 8 comes out AND gets compared to as a whole ecosystem to what Apple and Google provides. The concept of Modern UI is another issue too. We love it, but when pushed to others who see W7 as perfectly usable, will they find the tiles as appealing? It's along the lines of 'I really like the hardware, but the software's a bit iffy as I don't like tiles on W8.' So it will be a hard sell if that scenario happens.

    And I got to be honest, I like the idea of RT and WP8 on the post PC set of smartphones and tablets, I just don't think the same set of rules apply for the traditional desktop/laptop paradigm.
  8. #8  
    Quote Originally Posted by Heron_Kusanagi View Post
    As long as it gets into the mainstream discussion. It's a great sensational story after all, L920 with all the hardware innovations that Apple lacked.

    However, the real deal is when Windows 8 comes out AND gets compared to as a whole ecosystem to what Apple and Google provides. The concept of Modern UI is another issue too. We love it, but when pushed to others who see W7 as perfectly usable, will they find the tiles as appealing? It's along the lines of 'I really like the hardware, but the software's a bit iffy as I don't like tiles on W8.' So it will be a hard sell if that scenario happens.

    And I got to be honest, I like the idea of RT and WP8 on the post PC set of smartphones and tablets, I just don't think the same set of rules apply for the traditional desktop/laptop paradigm.
    This is my big fear as well, if metro proves unpopular on the desktop, then it could affect sales of WP8. It will be a shame if it does as Metro is actually very good, it took me a couple of days to get everything how I wanted, I had to read a fair few guides and how to's, Im very impressed, I just hope MS do a bit more to help people with the transition..
  9. #9  
    Quote Originally Posted by mmacleodbrown View Post
    This is my big fear as well, if metro proves unpopular on the desktop, then it could affect sales of WP8. It will be a shame if it does as Metro is actually very good, it took me a couple of days to get everything how I wanted, I had to read a fair few guides and how to's, Im very impressed, I just hope MS do a bit more to help people with the transition..
    Well, I am planning on getting a Surface tablet to replace my Made-In-China Android tablet this coming fall just to see if I can survive on Metro alone on a bigger screen. I think the Metro concept is brilliant with touch. I just don't really see it yet with keyboard + mouse. Still, we can believe that MS is in it to win it like before. It wouldn't be fun otherwise.
  10. jusdis's Avatar
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    #10  
    I've been using windows 8 with mouse and keyboard for the last four or five months. AT FIRST it was a little confusing. But just like everything else new to a person, hands on use will improve as you get accustomed to it.
  11. brmiller1976's Avatar
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    #11  
    Whichever Windows Phone ships on the most carriers will be the most successful of them. Period.

    That's likely to be a toss-up between the ATIV S and Lumia 820.

    The 920 will be a "boutique phone" due to carrier exclusivity. The average person is unlikely to switch carriers (or import a dodgy overseas unlocked version and hope it works).

    The only thing preventing Nokia from getting more sales is their stubborn insistence on providing exclusives. They sold only 300,000 900s in the USA due to the AT&T tie-up. If they'd shipped it on T-Mobile as well, I bet they'd have sold at least a million of them.
  12. cluberti's Avatar
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    #12  
    I wouldn't doubt AT&T exclusivity at first as that seems to be Nokia's MO, but rumors are out there that the 82x and 92x will find their way to other carriers like Verizon, and maybe even Sprint and T-Mo in the US. That would be a big deal for Windows Phone - the "hero" WP device on all the major carriers in the US. If the same thing can be done in other markets, it will at least be the start of WP taking away real marketshare from Android devices and the iPhone. It won't be the end, it will just be the beginning, but with marketshare comes mindshare and product comfortability. If the device can do what you want it to do, and comes from a vendor you know (and also you know others using it, usually that helps with the tentative crowd), you can start to build on that.

    Here's hoping this is the start of a viable 3rd wheel ;).
  13. brmiller1976's Avatar
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    #13  
    If the 920 isn't available on T-Mo when the ATIV S and HTC 8X are, I'll be picking up one of the latter two. So will a lot of other people.

    The days of "the device leading the sale" are long-finished. Apple proved that when they relented and launched on Verizon and Sprint. Nokia should learn from that experience and go with it... but, they seem unwilling to.

    Especially after months of people tired of waiting from July, I doubt folks will withhold sales from Samsung and HTC in the hope that Nokia blesses them with a top-level handset on their preferred carrier "eventually." Rather, they'll buy the best handset they can, from whoever is selling it.

    A big part of winning, as Samsung proved and Apple is learning, is ubiquity. If Nokia's not willing to go big on ALL the carriers with their best handset, they're not going to be able to claim to "lead the charge."

    Disappointing 900 sales are strong evidence of that. Hopefully they've taken notes.
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  14. theefman's Avatar
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    #14  
    Quote Originally Posted by brmiller1976 View Post
    Whichever Windows Phone ships on the most carriers will be the most successful of them. Period.

    That's likely to be a toss-up between the ATIV S and Lumia 820.

    The 920 will be a "boutique phone" due to carrier exclusivity. The average person is unlikely to switch carriers (or import a dodgy overseas unlocked version and hope it works).

    The only thing preventing Nokia from getting more sales is their stubborn insistence on providing exclusives. They sold only 300,000 900s in the USA due to the AT&T tie-up. If they'd shipped it on T-Mobile as well, I bet they'd have sold at least a million of them.
    I don't think there has been a device sold on both of these carriers that didn't sell better on at&t. To actually suggest that tmo would sell more than double what at&t sold with a smaller subscriber base is quite hard to believe.
  15. Villain's Avatar
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    #15  
    Quote Originally Posted by brmiller1976 View Post
    Whichever Windows Phone ships on the most carriers will be the most successful of them. Period.

    That's likely to be a toss-up between the ATIV S and Lumia 820.

    The 920 will be a "boutique phone" due to carrier exclusivity. The average person is unlikely to switch carriers (or import a dodgy overseas unlocked version and hope it works).

    The only thing preventing Nokia from getting more sales is their stubborn insistence on providing exclusives. They sold only 300,000 900s in the USA due to the AT&T tie-up. If they'd shipped it on T-Mobile as well, I bet they'd have sold at least a million of them.
    Agreed.... Nokia isn't in a position to be offering bids for exclusives. Flat out they need to get the flashy device in as many hands as possible.
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  16. 12Danny123's Avatar
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    #16  
    Quote Originally Posted by Villain View Post
    Agreed.... Nokia isn't in a position to be offering bids for exclusives. Flat out they need to get the flashy device in as many hands as possible.
    Well I am seeing a lot of international carriers putting the 920 at their line up. One carrier was CDMA. I think T-mobile Germany or China Mobile. and the 920 is going on that carrier. wouldn't that mean the 920 is going to Verizon too?
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  17. Reflexx's Avatar
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    I don't think Nokia is going into this suggesting exclusivity. It's likely AT&T telling Nokia that they will push the Lumia 920 as a hero phone for X number of months if they get an exclusivity period. Otherwise, Nokia has to just advertise on their own and HOPE that salespeople recommend the device.

    Nokia isn't bargaining from a position of strength in the US.
  18. smoledman's Avatar
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    #18  
    Quote Originally Posted by brmiller1976 View Post
    Whichever Windows Phone ships on the most carriers will be the most successful of them. Period.

    That's likely to be a toss-up between the ATIV S and Lumia 820.

    The 920 will be a "boutique phone" due to carrier exclusivity. The average person is unlikely to switch carriers (or import a dodgy overseas unlocked version and hope it works).

    The only thing preventing Nokia from getting more sales is their stubborn insistence on providing exclusives. They sold only 300,000 900s in the USA due to the AT&T tie-up. If they'd shipped it on T-Mobile as well, I bet they'd have sold at least a million of them.
    China Mobile serves 600 million people. AT&T Wireless serves about 40-50% of American wireless customers. The Lumia 920 will fail not because of carrier exclusivity.
  19. 12Danny123's Avatar
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    #19  
    Quote Originally Posted by Winning Guy View Post
    I don't think Nokia is going into this suggesting exclusivity. It's likely AT&T telling Nokia that they will push the Lumia 920 as a hero phone for X number of months if they get an exclusivity period. Otherwise, Nokia has to just advertise on their own and HOPE that salespeople recommend the device.

    Nokia isn't bargaining from a position of strength in the US.
    Well I think for some places Nokia will do exclusives. But in North America. Don't see that happening. not in the US
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  20. smoledman's Avatar
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    #20  
    Quote Originally Posted by Mio_BB View Post
    Also the Lumia is being heavily compared to the iPhone these days. Anyone reading up on the iP5 will get the story of the Lumia as well :)

    Sent from my Lumia 800 using Board Express
    Yes it's very heavy compared to the iPhone 5. That will be a huge knock against it. It's heavier then the Galaxy S3 too.
  21. Gaichuke's Avatar
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    #21  
    To everyone doubting Nokia's strategy to go exclusive with carriers, how can you voice your opinion without knowing anything about the conditions and commitments involved in those deals? Do you seriously thinking Nokia does these kind of decisions without extensive research and thorough consideration?

    Nokia has whole teams of people doing strategy research for Lumia line and unlike me or you, they have all the relevant data in the world and their experience in their disposal to make much more informed decision than we ever could. Trust me, they have calculated and re-calculated the numbers many, many times before making that decision.

    I do not know about you, but when I find that I clearly don't know enough about the topic, I disregard whatever my intuition tells me and listen what the man who does it for a living has to say.
    Last edited by Gaichuke; 09-17-2012 at 12:17 AM.
  22. brmiller1976's Avatar
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    #22  
    Quote Originally Posted by Gaichuke View Post
    To everyone doubting Nokia's strategy to go exclusive with carriers, how can you voice your opinion without knowing anything about the conditions and commitments involved in those deals?
    "Exclusive" means "not readily available except in certain circumstances." If the goal is saturation of the market and maximum sales, it is -- by definition -- the wrong strategy.

    Do you seriously thinking Nokia does these kind of decisions without extensive research and thorough consideration?
    I'm sure they did, just like they did for the Lumia 900 launch on AT&T in the USA. Not a bad phone (though mine had a lousy failure rate) -- did it set the world on fire? Nope. It was actually a sales flop.

    The definition of insanity is trying the same thing repeatedly and expecting different results.

    Nokia has whole teams of people doing strategy research for Lumia line and unlike me or you, they have all the relevant data in the world and their experience in their disposal to make much more informed decision than we ever could.
    Expertise is established not only by self-described experts, but also results.

    How successful has Nokia been in the smartphone space in the USA using the carrier exclusive model, to date? How successful has Lumia been in the USA using the carrier exclusive model, to date? Can you point out any one of the handful of smartphone vendors who still use the carrier exclusive model in the last 24 months who has been successful with it?

    Claiming expertise only works if you've got the goods -- read results -- to back it up. So far, Nokia's strategy in the USA has not been successful, and claiming that repeating the same strategy with a "this time it will be different" belief strikes me as silly. If major US players like HTC and Motorola have failed, why would a teeny tiny player like Nokia (from a US perspective) find success with it?

    Trust me, they have calculated and re-calculated the numbers many, many times before making that decision.
    Are you suggesting they didn't do so with the Lumia 900 launch? That they've suddenly decided to do things differently?

    I do not know about you, but when I find that I clearly don't know enough about the topic, I disregard whatever my intuition tells me and listen what the man who does it for a living has to say.
    Then I suggest calling my ex-broker at JPMorgan who suggested I buy eToys, Pets.com and MotherNature.com stock at the IPO price. He recommends stocks for a living, so he must be an expert who knows just what to do. :D

    Seriously, the best measure of whether a strategy will work isn't nebulous "experience" -- especially from a team that has underperformed so badly that its stock is near penny-stock pricing and its bond ratings are well into junk territory. It is perfectly reasonable to be skeptical in such circumstances.

    The best measure of whether a strategy will work is seeing how it has been executed so far in terms of results in the market (the USA). For Nokia, few could argue the score is great or even acceptable in the USA (to be charitable).

    The other measure -- which is perfectly reasonable -- is to ask "as a smartphone buyer, would I go along with what Nokia is planning and purchase a mid-tier phone from them over a top-tier competing phone on my carrier, or switch to a more-expensive plan from someone else to get their top phone?" Most people would answer "no."

    Finally, you can contrast the current failing strategy with the ones of Samsung and Apple -- the two market leaders. They both offer the same top-tier device across most or all major US carriers. The manufacturers who have offered other carrier exclusives -- like Motorola, Sony, and Kyocera -- are shrinking and in financial trouble.

    Consider that Samsung is likely to emulate its incredibly successful Galaxy S III strategy with the ATIV S. Consider that HTC may as well. And then look at Nokia's efforts to stick with the same "device exclusive" strategy of Motorola, Sony, and Kyocera.

    "Look at the numbers and do the calculations." And tell me what the likely outcome is.

    And make no mistake, the outcome is important, especially given the WP community's strange insistence on making Nokia (and only Nokia) a proxy for the success of Windows Phone. If Nokia delivers more of the same disappointing US Lumia sales, the message in the press won't be "Nokia struggles," it will be "Windows Phone continues to struggle."
    Last edited by brmiller1976; 09-17-2012 at 01:18 AM.
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  23. brmiller1976's Avatar
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    #23  
    Quote Originally Posted by smoledman View Post
    China Mobile serves 600 million people. AT&T Wireless serves about 40-50% of American wireless customers. The Lumia 920 will fail not because of carrier exclusivity.
    Let's look at the US market.

    AT&T's share of the US wireless market postpaid market is 34% (according to NPD).

    Assuming they convert 10% of their addressable market, that's only 3.4% share for Nokia's flagship in the USA.

    If they offered the device on every major wireless carrier and converted 10% of their addressable market, their market share would be 10% -- almost 3x as much as a carrier exclusive alone.

    Which track do you think would make investors, developers, and consumers happier?
  24. Reflexx's Avatar
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    #24  
    Not all OEMs are on equal footing with carriers. Some, like Apple and Samsung, have a lot of clout and power. Others, like Nokia, aren't in a very strong bargaining position.

    Do people actually believe that Nokia execs are sitting in a room telling each other, "Let's try to limit which carriers can have access to our phones, because that will mean more customers!" Of course not.
  25. brmiller1976's Avatar
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    #25  
    Nokia likely has more bargaining power than it thinks.

    Samsung didn't just charge in and attain it -- they built it over time.

    Even when they offered "carrier exclusives" (in the original Galaxy S days), the "Vibrant" and "Captivate" and "Epic" and "Fascinate" were all the same phone (and everyone knew it). There's no reason Nokia couldn't go down the same path and offer the "Fabulous" for Verizon, the "Awesome" for AT&T, the "Amazing" for Sprint and the "Vavavavoom" for T-Mo (with all of them being a 920).

    Creative thinking is required to disrupt markets -- more of the same won't cut it.
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