- 12-18-2011, 08:29 PM #1
Clearly Microsoft and its partners have a huge uphill battle ahead of them.
Here are the problems I see:
1. Generally people like their IPhone, think its a best thing since sliced bread and have NO CLUE how the industry has evolved since they started buying Iphones 4 years ago. Nothing else came close back then, and they still think that is the case today. Having the most innovative gadget is just not that important to most people, so they just dont go out looking for a Windows Phone.
2. The have this sense of comfort with their phone. It works for what they want to do and they dont want to rock the boat. They have no idea that what daily tasks they do today, can be done in 1/10th the time on a Windows Phone. They just dont BELIEVE it, and they just dont want to try something new. Its the grandmon-syndrone.. they are happy with how they have always done things.
3. For the younger people that have IPhones, they have a much bigger reason for never considering too switch.. they have WAY TOO MUCH MONEY INVESTED in Apple crap.. Apps and music. To get these guys to switch, I would think Microsoft would have to Pay them to switch i.e. Microsoft could tell them.. show me you bought App X for IPhone/Android. We will give you $ gift card so you can buy the same app(s) on Windows Phone, when you buy a new Windows Phone. I know this is not going to happen.. but without it I just dont see how people will give up their entire iTunes collection and make a clean start. The more time progresses, the much worse this is going to get.
4. Microsoft has made TWO BIG mistakes that they are really going to have to pay for for a long time. #1 - They let that WIndows Mobile deteriorate so much that people hated it and thats what 9 out of 10 people think about when I mention Windows Phone. They think Windows Mobile IS THE SAME AS Windows Phone. This is even friends of mine that are highly technical software pros. Microsoft just hasn't broken away from the stigma of Windows Mobile. They should have dropped the "Windows" from Windows Phone. That might have got them off on the right footing at least. Windows Phone sounds just to similar to Windows Mobile #2 - I tell them you have to check out THE NEW Windows Phone with Mango. They tell me, Windows Phone is not new, its been around for over year and has gone nowhere. Whey the f@!# did Microsoft release a new OS, their future OS and let it languish for year with little to no marketing and then a year later suddenly wake up and try to push it ?
5. Lets face it ... Nokia's Rolling Thunder.. catchy name, but then they release that run-of-the-mill Lumia 710 on T-Mobile in the US. Seriously!!! Even a Nokia 800 would have to work hard to gain any attention from the IPhone yielding american public. That Lumia 710 has no chance. Why start with your WORST FOOT FORWARD.. A sub-standard carrier T-Mobile and a phone that looks like dog-food for the IPhone.
As much as I love Windows Phone, I have to agreed with a lot of what is said in this piece The Microsoft/Nokia low-end strategy is backwards.
One mis-step might be fine, but the next phone Nokia comes up with better be WAAAY BETTER in its industrial design and feature-set than the IPhone 4S/5. While we understand that Windows Phone is much more fluid on a single-core than how Android/IPhone performs on 2 cores, the average Joe doesn't care or get it. Nokia needs a HEAD-TURNER. Period!!
- 12-18-2011, 09:04 PM #2
It'll just take time...
Miicrosoft has tons of money to keep throwing at this.
Once people start seeing more windows phones "out in the wild" and actually get a chance to try one, it'll catch on.
Half the world are trendy sheep, if wp7 gets big they'll follow along, say "baaaa baa" and buy one too
- 12-18-2011, 09:17 PM #3
It won't happen quickly. I think the positive reviews by the tech bloggers will help. Just as people have gotten tire of ios and switched to android people will switch to WP7. I think it will be a snowball effect as more people switch to this platform.
Sent from my Windows 7 Phone using Board Express
12-18-2011, 09:41 PM #4
- 39 Posts
I believe the Eco-system will help in the long run. Windows 8, WP8, Windows tablet and the new Xbox will be heavy integrated. Sales will come, Microsoft is building a tsunami. They are doing many things right and it is just of matter of time. I believe late 2012 things will take off and mid to late 2013 we will see WP have at least a 20 to 30% of the smartphone market worldwide.
- 12-18-2011, 10:03 PM #5
The way I see it is that Xbox used to be the big underdog. Everyone had a PlayStation or PlayStation 2. Now look at it. They kept throwing money at it, overcame the PlayStation 3 buzz and now it seems everyone I know is getting an Xbox and Kinect for Christmas this year. As long as they keep going and don't let up (a la Zune physical devices), they should be able to do quite well.Ken Stone - Indie Windows Phone 7 Developer
- 12-19-2011, 12:46 AM #6
It takes time. And you also have to realize, they don't need to convert people as much as you think. 60-70% of people do not yet have a smart phone. Thats a very large number of people. Its actually MORE important to get first timers to check it out than 'convert' those already waving their teams flag. But there will be converts. Its just not the #1 strategy.
- 12-19-2011, 01:52 AM #7
12-19-2011, 03:50 AM #8
- 292 Posts
As others have said, its not necessarily about converting current smart phone users but capturing the market for people getting their first one.
The real game changer though, has to the release of Windows 8. Once the marketing push starts for that I am really interested to see the effect it has on Windows Phone sales.
As I said somewhere else on here, people weren't ready for Windows Phone yet, once more of them see that it is the future of their PC too they'll be all over it.
- 12-19-2011, 05:27 AM #9
I don't see why anyone needs "converting" to anything. If they like what they use and it does what they need it to, why on Earth should they be encouraged to give it up? Sure, if they like something better or are dissatisfied with what they have then fine - but I think this assumption that there's a huge pool of iPhone/Android users who don't like what they have but literally just don't know it simply isn't true. If they're not happy, they'll try something else naturally anyway.
I think WP7 will do fine as long as it's marketed well (which hasn't always been the case) and people get to try it, which is a situation that's slowly improving. The key market, as others have said, is new adopters. As long as MS keep at it, and Nokia keep producing desirable hardware and pushing their marketing, I can see WP7 becoming a solid third ecosystem with 10%-15% of the market as RIM continues to die a slow death. I still think if there's any market share to be cannibalized though, it's mainly from Android. iOS works great. Android only works well on expensive handsets though, and stinks on cheap ones - an area where WP7 excels. It's that market, where people want a smartphone but can't/won't pay for the latest and greatest where there's a real opportunity to show what quality design and control can do. Apple know it, which is why the 3GS is still being made, selling and doing well. Nokia know it too, which is why the 710 exists.
- 12-19-2011, 05:39 AM #10
As a hardcore Android user it would take a lot for me to switch to Windows Phone.
They would need to to open up the OS a little more for me. Not enough to cause severe fragmentation. Bit enough to were I feel like I can call the device my own. Add ability for different keyboards, wallpapers, change transparency of the tiles, smaller ans bigger tiles, more interactive tiles, etc...
I don't really see Microsoft really changing what I need to leave Android anytime soon, so I don't really think about leaving often.
PS. They also need better hardware.
Sent from my Nexus S 4G using Tapatalk
- 12-19-2011, 05:48 AM #11
When your basic premise is that the people you are trying to convert are either morons or misinformed and your thinking is informed by a sense of distaste, then you are likely to inject that into conversations and that puts off as many people as it attracts.
Sent from my Lumia 800 using Board Express
12-19-2011, 05:53 AM #12
- 95 Posts
It will catch on more when 2 things happen. When the Eco-system becomes more than a remote for the Xbox and includes Apple AirPlay technology, and when you can go to the MS app store and find useful apps like great games, local news, banking, etc...
Also, while I love the pin screen, I know the list of apps turns off many. It's akin to Windows file directory that no one cares for.
- 12-19-2011, 05:55 AM #13
Try it out, I bet a first gen wp7 is faster and more lag free than the new galaxy nexus (in fact I know it is..).
While I do agree to some degree about hardware (need ffc, etc...), I don't think we need to jump on the dual core train. Android just needs hardware like that to even run properly.
I recently switched after 2 years on android, so although I also would like custom backgrounds and stuff, I found some homebrew solutions to my customization needs
12-19-2011, 06:11 AM #14
- 78 Posts
I'm a convert to Windows Phone, having previously owned two iPhones. I now have a Lumia 800, and so far I'm very happy with it.
The reasons why I made the switch are generally more about the ecosystems evolving around the phones rather than the OS itself. iOS is now a mature, polished OS. Android is well established largely because it's often the more afordable choice for most people, and whilst the OS is in some ways a little flaky, it's still 'good enough' for most people.
In general though, people primarily use their phones to access online services, and there are certain things most people use their phones for that can easily be acheived on any of the major platforms. E-mail, web browsing, Facebook, Twitter etc - all things that can be done, and done well on iOS, Android and WP7. This is the first area where you can potentially convince some people that WP7 is a little better. Having Facebook and Twitter integration built right into the phone essentially makes it a true 'Social Phone' - so anyone who makes heavy use of Social networking may be very interested in that feature alone.
However it's not just third party services that people access on their phones. Apple are attempting to evolve their ecosystem with iCloud. Google of course have a range of online services - Google Docs for example.
In both cases, you're pushed towards a model that the vendor has decided is the 'right' approach. With Apple, iCloud is all about syncing - the web is simply there as a transport mechanism to get your data to all the devices you own, where you use local software to access and manipulate it. Using a browser is kind of down-played. Google is the exact opposite. Their is no syncing as such - it's all just on the web, accessed largely through a browser. If you're on a PC or Mac and want to use local software - well, you have to download a copy of the file, edit it, and then upload it manually.
Microsoft's 'Windows Live' services are far more flexible. You can choose to work in a browser, or choose to use local software. This suits me much better. When I'm at home, I can access my files and data using local software on my PC. When I'm at work, if I need access to my data I don't have to download or sync it to my work machine - which would be innapropriate.
So, I find the Microsoft approach more flexible, and this generally runs through most of what Microsoft do. Google and Apple are actually far more likely to push you into doing things /their/ way.
I think that the most likely source of 'converts' however is likely to be Android users. Windows Phone offers a level of simplicity and flexibility that can rival Apple... but has the same variance of price points that Android does. Apple users tend to be extremely loyal. They make an emotional investment by allowing themselves to be convinced that it's 'the best'. This makes them far more likely to defend that choice, whether it be to others, or to themselves.
The question for the future now, is that given how sophisticated Mobile devices now are, will they become more like computing in general, in that the dominant player (Android) will become entrenched for many years, or will the dominance of Android be as vulnerable as the dominance of other mobile platforms of the past (Psion, Palm, BlackBerry)?
Windows Phone is generally a very appealing device to consumers ... the trick is getting them to take a look at it in the first place, as well as continuing to make regular 'splashes' through ongoing innovation that can in some way grab the headlines and make people curious about what's going on on the WP7 platform! :)
In the meantime, the best way to 'help' is to simply let as many people as possible have a play with your Windows Phone!
- 12-19-2011, 07:50 AM #15
Windows Phone is smoother than any Android device (except maybe the SGSII) but is a tad slower to me. That's where I believe the extra hardware will do wonders for the OS.
My Nexus S is pretty fast for me (not the smoothest though) and doesn't have dual core. I think you may be getting Vanilla Android mixed up with those horrible skins the manufacturers put on the phones.
I like how smooth the OS is, I just don't like the WP experience right now.
Sent from my Nexus S 4G using Tapatalk
- 12-19-2011, 08:33 AM #17
12-19-2011, 10:16 AM #18
- 702 Posts
I honestly believe that Microsoft hasn't really tried to win the US over yet. It seems pretty obvious that they are aiming at the lower end of the spectrum in order to get a foothold in emerging markets. I feel like 7.0 was just to get it out there, 7.1 was to make it competitive, and Tango (I forgot the build number) will be to really make it shine in new markets. There hasn't been a push (yet) to make it competitive in the US market. I'm going to hope that Apollo addresses this, but since we don't have that much information on it, hope is all I can have. :\
Carrier: Verizon Wireless
Phones: HTC 8X & HTC Trophy & Samsung Focus
PC:Dell Studio XPS 1640
My app: Plant Guide
Spitfire 4.0, my HTC Imagio, rest in peace.
- 12-19-2011, 12:10 PM #20
12-19-2011, 12:29 PM #21
- 292 Posts
More than anything I found Android tiring to use. I know people who happily kept their handsets with the stock ROM and so on, but I think a large proportion of Android users get it for the customisation available. In the end it was exactly that that wore me out.
If you get a mid-range or even high-end Android phone to me it always felt like it could/should be performing better. That leads to custom ROMs which can lead to a lot of problems, as well as chopping and changing of the OS and ultimately spending more time setting the phone up time and time again rather than actually enjoying using it. I know that's an example very specific to me, but I'm sure I'm not the only Android user to feel like I want something that just works and isn't an iPhone.
I could write volumes on everything that I don't like about iPhone and iOS, but I wont, suffice to say that I despite the excellent hardware, I loathe the OS and the supporting software and I'm not the only one.
Windows Phone, for me, has been a revelation compared to Android which felt like a step sideways from iOS but with a few bells on. With the Lumia I actually get to enjoy using the phone, it has made my life less complicated and it does it in a way that is gorgeous to look at and a joy to use. In short the first phone OS I haven't felt frustrated or disappointed with.
It might take Microsoft a while to establish the OS better, but they have the cash to support it for as long as it takes. I know plenty of people who are unhappy with their iPhones and their high-end Android devices who will be looking for something new come upgrade time.
- 12-19-2011, 12:36 PM #22
A lot of times I find myself in a position where I have 20 seconds or so to give "an elevator pitch" for Windows Phone. If you had 20 seconds to pitch a Windows Phone to an IPhone or Android user, what would you do/show them ?
Windows 8.. ah yes. Clearly Microsoft made it clear at Build this year that Windows 8 will look similar across all types of devices. Whats not clear to me is whether a scaled down version of Windows 8 will be the new Windows Phone ? or will Windows Phone continue to be a separate code-base like it is today.. fast, lean and terrific. And importantly, will the apps being created today for Windows Phone run on the next version of Windows that is targeted at the phone ? Lots of questions.
- 12-19-2011, 12:42 PM #23
One thing with resonates well with my techie friends is that since there are so many versions of the Android codebase, it takes months for simple patches to be rolled out. And forget about major updates.
A lot of the problems that Android is headed into are nicely outlined in this article
Why OEMs need months to deliver Android updates to your phone | ExtremeTech
Problem is that most Android users dont really know how much they as missing out on in terms of late patches/features until they have personal experience with a bug and then have to wait months for a fix.
Last edited by WPLuver; 12-19-2011 at 01:19 PM.
- 12-19-2011, 12:54 PM #24
The marketing of a product begins with the name. Take a name like "Android" marketed with the cute little robot mascot fashioned as a sort of cross between the 1950's vision of the future, and R2-D2 from StarWars. Quite simply, the WP7 name has got to go. Windows is a fine OS, but projects the image that WP7 is somehow big and sluggish and really just more of the same ol'-same ol'. At least MS was smart enought to remove the word "Series" from the name early on. They should have gone further and called it "Froggie", or "Octo" with an octopus and each arm using some form of social networking all at once... anything more fun than "Windows".
It's sad to say but I think MS is turning into the next IBM: The image of an old-school stuffy company. Yeah, MS still produces great products, but they're just not hip.
12-19-2011, 01:23 PM #25
- 319 Posts
I believe the biggest obstacles is carrier bias, read: retail professionals. Until they stop steering people towards non-WPs, it'll never catch on.
If someone walks in and says they're big on Facebook, the answer should instantly be Windows Phone. But no, this laggy, malware ridden Anroid phone has a cool app for that.