- 02-24-2013, 10:11 PM #7
Microsoft, Apple and Google have different ideas about how an ecosystem is best maintained and what types of fragmentation are tolerable. These differing views are what each OS developer's unique approach to major version updates can be traced back to.
WP devices won't update to major new versions like iOS does.
What complicates matters somewhat, is that version numbers are nothing more than arbitrary labels. Microsoft can decide to call WP8.1 WP2013. Instead if WP8.5 they can call it WP-Blue, or instead of WP9 they can call it WP8.9. Version numbers don't really mean anything. My point is, there will be a cutoff point that coincides with the introduction of new hardware, and that point will come far earlier than it does on iOS.
- 02-24-2013, 10:56 PM #11
- 02-24-2013, 11:34 PM #12
MS can't have another 7 to 8 fiasco. If people are going to deal with fragmented OS they will just go Android and at least get the features they want. 8 was a step back from 7 in most regards. People won't go through that again. The OS is already 2 yrs from being on par with a+a. If MS is going two steps back, one step forward, they might as well get out of mobile.
- 02-24-2013, 11:51 PM #13
Any input right now is pure speculation. The answer is that it's all up in the air. Even though none of us can see why Microsoft might abandon WP users AGAIN at the moment, it could certainly happen.
WP9 should be two years away, though. First there should be WP 8.5 and WP8s would likely get that.
- 02-24-2013, 11:51 PM #14
- 02-25-2013, 01:15 AM #17
Today I thought about the not continued Whatsapp support on the iPhone 3G, because two of my friends were affected. One of them bought recently an iPhone 5 to replace it, and my thought was: "Well, now his phone will be supported for years and years to come, so that's okay." This was then followed by a: "I have no idea what will happen to my 8X, maybe Microsoft decides it would be funny again to make new apps not working on my phone in 2 years..."
I don't want to think like this when using my phone, honestly. I don't know what will happen, but Microsoft doesn't have my trust. They did this twice withing 3 years, from Windows Mobile to Windows Phone and from Windows Phone 7 to Windows Phone 8.
- 02-25-2013, 01:20 AM #18
Now that I think about it, regardless of what happens, Microsoft is practically guaranteed to accommodate x86 processors in the future and that will inevitably create a fork between x86 Windows Phones and ARM Windows Phones. (Think of it as a true Windows 8 Phone, based on x86, vs Windows RT Phone, what we currently have.) Akin to Windows 8 and Windows RT, not all the features from one will be in the other. The question is more of a matter of how Microsoft will go about it. Microsoft can support both ecosystems or they can only support x86 or they can only support ARM and experiment with one or two x86 devices.
Basically, what I'm saying is don't expect your Windows Phone 8s to have iPhone length support. They might be supported for a long time; but, there will highly likely be new Windows Phones with radically different feature sets than those currently available in the future.
- 02-25-2013, 01:49 AM #19
I think you make some good points.
At the height of the WP7/WP8 nerd-rage, people were mad because they felt they would miss out on all the new WP8 features. However, just like you mentioned, there really aren't any "killer features" in WP8 beyond what WP7 could already do. Some even suggest that WP7.8 is better (here). As it turns out, this fear was completely baseless. WP8.0 was only about bringing the WP7.x feature set to new hardware. Not much else. Going from WP8.x to WP9 may be similar.
The angry mob also feared they wouldn't get a single app update, not to mention a single new app, after WP8 was released. This too turned out to be completely baseless. WP7.x doesn't get every single app, but they get a lot, including the good stuff like the latest version of Nokia Drive and Skulls of the Shogun. Both run great on WP7.x devices. App Updates? My old Lumia 800 still gets those almost every day too. What happened? Many devs just haven't yet made the switch to WP8. Many are still targeting WP7.x and those apps also run on WP8.
It certainly was a fiasco however. Not a fiasco in the way people expected though. Nobody was cheated out of anything. It was a PR fiasco. Driven mainly by Microsoft's complete failure to communicate what they were doing and why. Unfortunately, that continues to this day.
If your app requires the more powerful hardware > target WP8
If your app doesn't require any specific hardware > target WP7.8 (provided you follow the rules, it will also run on WP8)
In both cases, the developer has exactly one hardware and one software configuration to program against. Nothing else needs consideration. That isn't fragmentation.
However, without the low level kernel overhaul, I see no reason why we should see such problems again. I expect that WP9 (or whatever they call it) will also be mainly a hardware update. That is fine by me. Just the step backwards in OS features and stability must be avoided, otherwise it's "game over".
Last edited by a5cent; 02-25-2013 at 07:21 AM. Reason: Fixed URL
02-25-2013, 02:01 AM #20
- 126 Posts
I don't think there will specifically be a WP 9 until there is Windows 9...I think we are looking at 8.x For a while. Just my thought. After they released both phone and desktop version 9's in tandem and having apps to be cross platform...I can only see them making revisions and prolonging any new release.
- 02-25-2013, 02:39 AM #21
IMHO people are just having problems seeing past the version number. They assume they must have the same OS version or they will instantly be locked out of something, but that just isn't true.
- 02-25-2013, 02:50 AM #22
I understand that Microsoft wants us to buy a new phone at least every two years, but the reality is sometimes different. Also, I was writing about the possible problem I'll have in two years, when I can't use new apps on my phone anymore, in comparison to Apple which supports the old phones for years.
Just look at the development of the official WPCentral app. I don't think this change and the development for two systems is easy for developers. And all the old apps developed for WP7 don't support the full resolution on my phone. I don't need such a large screen, when there's one centimeter or so just being black ;-)
- 02-25-2013, 03:36 AM #23
I'm talking about the fear people had, that Microsoft and all developers would instantly forget WP7 existed upon WP8's release. That didn't happen, mainly due to economics. Developers don't develop for a market that barely exists. That is why they continue to target WP7. My point is that those fears would be equally unjustified should WP8 devices not get updated to WP9. WP8 would continue to get apps and updates just the same.
I'm not familiar with Jay's problems with the WPC app. What problems has he got? Most WP developers I know continue to develop for WP7 and those exact same apps run on WP7 and WP8. It's not willy-nilly simple and completely without problems, but software development never is, no matter what platform you are on.
- 02-25-2013, 03:48 AM #25
For everything else, yes, you're right. But for how long will this last? The Lumia 900 was still really new when WP8 hit. So people who have bought a high end device at the end of the year have now maybe passed three months of their 2 year update cycle. Do you think the support will still be the same in a year when they are left with 9 months?
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